Indian villages have now surpassed the country's major cities

According to research, India's countryside has already surpassed its big cities in reporting an increase in new cases of Covid-19 in the pandemic's third wave, despite the fact that daily numbers are declining.

Despite the fact that urban districts continue to record a higher number of cases than rural regions, daily cases in urban districts are declining, while rural districts continue to grow. In both of India's previous Covid-19 waves, this shift in growing infections from urban to rural areas was also observed. How India Lives contributed district-level data for the HT analysis, which was collated through January 21.

Since January 16 and 13, respectively, the seven-day average of new cases in Delhi and Mumbai – the first two outbreak centers of the Omicron spike – has decreased every day. They aren't the only major metropolis to do so; infections in other major cities such as Chennai and Kolkata are also rapidly declining.

While India's seven-day average continues to rise, it is currently growing at a considerably slower rate than the Omicron spike, according to data. The week ending January 23 saw a seven-day average of 309,244 daily infections.

This number was 239,100 a week ago, meaning it has increased by 29.3% in just seven days. The weekly growth rate peaked at 528 percent in the week ending January 8, about six times higher than the second wave's maximum growth rate.

While the seven-day average in Mumbai and Mumbai Suburban districts fell from 14,038 on January 15 to 6,934 on January 21, the average in the rest of Maharashtra jumped from 28,080 to 35,315 on January 21. It appears that districts that are less urban are now leading the way in terms of case increase.

HT grouped districts based on the share of their people residing in rural areas in the 2011 census to see if the current wave is currently being driven by rural areas.

Districts with less than 20% of the population residing in rural areas are categorized as fully urban, while those with more than 80% living in rural areas are classified as entirely rural, with the predominantly urban, mixed, and largely rural districts falling at similar 20% intervals in between.

The seven-day average of cases has reduced in the last week across the entire metropolitan districts – 16 in total, including all metros and several capital cities – from 74,651 on January 15 to 70,142 on January 21. Apart from being more recent than Delhi and Mumbai, the drop in these 16 districts has also been less steady. On January 18, for example, the average increased by 0.8 percent, while falling on all previous days from January 16 to 21.

Cases are still increasing in all other types of districts, although they are increasing at a faster rate in rural areas. On January 21, the seven-day average growth rate is largely urban districts (20 percent -40 percent population rural), 4.4 percent in mixed districts (40 percent -60 percent population rural), 6.7 percent in largely rural districts (60 percent -80 percent population rural), and 6.9 percent in entirely rural districts was 4.5 percent in large urban districts (20 percent -40 percent population rural) (over 80 percent rural population).

In terms of absolute numbers, new infections are still slightly greater in urban areas. On January 21, the seven-day average in fully urban districts was 70,142; in primarily urban districts, 60,637; in mixed districts, 53,024; in largely rural districts, 61,914; and in entirely rural districts, 41,226.

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